A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
